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Get Lowe

According to reports, there was almost a shiny new pitcher underneath the Wilpon's Christmas tree this year. Talks of Derek Lowe being on the verge of signing with the Mets were rampant, but of course fell apart later in the week. Lowe is a pitcher straight out of the Orel Hershiser mold. He's an inning-eating bulldog that can get you at least 15 wins a year, and has the cajones to pitch in a big market and in a big game. Anyone questioning that can simply go back to 2004 when he posted a 1.86 ERA in the playoffs and won every series-clinching game en route to Boston's first World Series in almost a century.

In the last 5 years, Lowe has consistently been an effective pitcher in this league. To illustrate this, consider the following stats below showing total wins, innings pitched, quality starts (pitching at least 6 innings and letting up no more than 3 runs), and ERA from 2004-2008.

Pitcher 1: 72 Wins, 915 Innings Pitched, 88 Quality Starts, 3.90 ERA
Pitcher 2: 74 Wins, 1071 Innings Pitched, 103 Quality Starts, 3.46 ERA.
Pitcher 3: 57 Wins, 852 Innings Pitched, 84 Quality Starts, 3.78 ERA.
Pitcher 4: 68 Wins, 1033 Innings Pitched, 94 Quality Starts, 3.96 ERA.

Looking at the above, it's obvious to see that these 4 pitchers have very comparable stats. It's hard to even decipher which one of these could be considered the dominant pitcher in the group. Well, you'll be happy to find out that Pitcher 1 is 2003 World Series MVP Josh Beckett, Pitchers 2 and 3 are the most recently coveted free agents (and now the newest New York Yankees) CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett, and at Pitcher 4 we come to Derek Lowe.

It's pretty amazing to see the stats between Lowe and Burnett and think about how much money Burnett just signed for. Granted Burnett is 4 years younger than Lowe, but I think when comparing their stats you'd be getting a bargain in Lowe. At the very least you can throw the house on D-Lowe having more starts and innings than fragile AJ over the next 4 years.

From the Mets standpoint, a starting staff of Johan, Lowe, Pelfrey, Maine, and the platoon of Jon Niese / Bobby Parnell / Pedro Martinez??? is a major upgrade from where they ended last season. It also gives them 2 inning-eaters and big game pitchers in Johan and Lowe, which would help to take the stress off the much over-worked bullpen as well. Although last year could be considered Pelfrey's breakout year, I think the sky's the limit for this kid this year. And if Maine can go the whole season you now have 4 solid starters in your rotation. To go in with only Johan/Pelfrey/Maine, and have 2 question marks for your last 2 starters would be ludicrous.

I would think 4 years, 12 million would be ideal, but I realize we're working with the anti-Christ himself, Scott Boras here. If this price tag goes up to 15 million a year, I still think that the Mets' brass should make it happen. Put a sinker ball pitcher in Citi field and let the left side of the infield of Wright and Reyes clean up every ground ball. The Mets need another starter and the fans deserve one that's top quality. So lets do this...Lets get Lowe.

Mets Blog Writer - Jeff Bertinetti

1 comment:

  1. I wouldn't go higher than 12 million. Noone else is will. Boras the snake will try, but I don't think anyone is willing to take the risk.

    ReplyDelete